Saturday, October 8, 2011

European missile defense and Russia's recent warning

 Moscow threatens to halt NATO's cooperation on missile defense in Europe. Today's statement by the Foreign Ministry, according to experts, is a kind of last warning for Washington, which continues to ignore the dissenting opinion in Russia.
Played a Spanish party
Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday issued a very strongly worded statement to the leadership of NATO.
"... Without collective discussion, without taking into account the views of all interested countries to take decisions that could affect state security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. If the event will continue to evolve this way, the chance to turn a ... missile defense system in the field of confrontation, the subject of cooperation will be missed" - a commentary of the ministry.


According to the official clarifying the Foreign Ministry, this statement is due to Spain's decision to join the U.S. missile defense systems being built in Europe. The Spanish naval base in Rota will be placed four American ship of Aegis - missile carriers Standard SM-3.
On Wednesday said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Spanish Prime Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and the Pentagon chief Leon Panetta. Rasmussen further noted that the 2018 ABM system in Europe will reach full combat readiness. The Russian position is negatively perceived by any unilateral moves by NATO on missile defense in Europe, once again, was not taken into account.
The continuing pressure on the issue of Americans' EUROPRO ", ignoring Moscow's opinion, has a political explanation. "For the U.S. is unacceptable to anyone (and even more so - Russia, a suspicion as to which former and perhaps future rival, remains) the Americans to dictate the criteria for future deployment of missile defense systems" - said in an interview with RIA Novosti Deputy Director of the Institute of International Studies MGIMO Viktor Mizin.
According to experts, nobody does not guarantee non-deployment of U.S. missile defense components in the immediate proximity of Russian borders. "We need concrete tangible criteria that will soothe Russia", - says Viktor Mizin Russian demands, and says: "It is therefore chosen so hard tone of statements by the Foreign Ministry, is a sort of last attempt to reason with the Americans."
Engineering Global Threat
America is slowly expands European missile defense components, and in fact - creating a global missile defense system, in which the mobile fire assets (missiles) can be used in targeting a single space (on all available radar and optical-electronic means of intelligence).
Not quick, but the planned creation of a global missile defense system, known as "flexible phased approach," pretty annoyed Moscow. And there is a reason.
"Now these systems we do not care, it is actually an air defense system. But in the future they may get opportunities to combat warheads of our missiles. Especially when it goes about placing ships, carriers in the Arctic Ocean" - warns Victor Mizin.
This fact causes a major concern of the Russian side: the main shock mobility component of future missile defense system - and a gradual, seemingly imperceptible increase their combat capabilities.
"According to the General Staff in 2015," EUROPRO "is already in the form where it can in some way negatively affect Russia's ability in the field of nuclear deterrence. So in 2015 they intercept part of our ballistic missiles," - said the chief RIA Novosti editor of "National Defense" Igor Korotchenko.
Commenting on Russia's position in negotiations with NATO, Korotchenko said that Moscow needs to surface missile firepower were relegated from the perimeter of the Russian border in the range of their operational use. In this case, the configuration of the system might allow NATO to intercept targets in its air space, but not over Russian territory.
Sectoral deadlock
As a counter-initiative, preventing escalation of the conflict with NATO, Russia for some time been promoting the idea of ​​so-called "sectoral defense". Its meaning is reduced to a formal division of responsibility for missile defense in Europe between NATO and Russian segments of the partners to shoot down missiles flying toward each other and fall into their sector of responsibility.
According to some experts, the policy proposal on missile defense sector and unrealizable, according to Victor Mizin, "even with our specialists, it raises serious questions." "[The proposal] is it that Russia agrees to shoot down the flying missiles over its territory, and thus assumes the defense of Eastern Europe, that for the latter categorically unacceptable" - says the expert.
Critical of the captains of the Russian nuclear missile industry. For example, General Designer of Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering, Yuri Solomon (the developer of the Russian strategic missile "Topol", "Yars" and "Mace") at the beginning of this year, openly attacked the "dead-end, absolutely unrealizable idea of ​​missile defense sector, which is a priori not be achieved even with psychological point of view. " According to Solomon, the level of trust between Russia and the West is not high enough for such projects.
"Sectoral missile defense would be realized if NATO went on a practical discussion" - suggests, in turn, Igor Korotchenko - "But the idea of ​​equal security for the West definitely buried."
Exchange Center: Exit or gimmick?
Continuing the theme of "sectoral defense" should be noted that the Russian-American problem in this area is primarily reduced to the definitive joint deficit areas for bilateral action.
The U.S. administration has recently revived the idea of ​​a joint data exchange center on missile launches, where they could work together Russian and American (and possibly Europe) specialist officers. However, the prospects are still uncertain.
"It is unclear why Russia is not promoting this idea - surprised Victor Mizin. - At one time it was considered, but it" killed "under completely false pretenses, such as an uncertain U.S. military jurisdiction on Russian territory and tax problems."
However, agreement on the part of the U.S. initiative for exchange of data center experts have not. "It is just a dummy, like the NATO-Russia Council, which anybody is not binding," - says Igor Korotchenko. - "It was done so as not to provoke Russia, slip us a compromise, so we do not have to implement plans of military-technical parry the threat."
Breakthroughs should not wait
The Russian leadership is nervous, and, according to Victor Mizin, this is understandable: Russia is actually nothing to offer Americans to create a joint missile defense system.
"Americans are frankly believe that Russian technology they do not need, that they were already well advanced in their missile development" - said Mizin.
At the same algorithm of cooperation, according to experts, is clear: "we need no consistent system, and the two connected in parallel." In his view, the U.S. could build a missile defense system for Europe, and Russia - to its allies in the CSTO or hypothetical "Eurasian Union" suggested the other day Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
"In these circumstances, should in any case continue to negotiate and do not slam the door," - says Igor Korotchenko. - "But if it came to nothing lead, then Russia would be wise to take the military-technical measures. It does not cost that need to be shy and say that all the components of missile defense in Europe after 2015 will be the priorities for the Russian attacks (including and the use of nuclear weapons) in a hypothetical military conflict. "
"It's a shame that instead of dialogue, which would line up after the break in last year's NATO summit in Lisbon, [Russia and the U.S.] are not just treading water, and even rolled back. And in the military-political leadership is growing frustration" - adds Victor Mizin.
The situation is further complicated by the pre-election marathon in Russia and the U.S.. "Obama has their hands tied on all foreign and domestic issues, and missile defense - the sacred cow of Republicans," - said Mizin and concludes: "In the next six months or a year breakthroughs should not wait."