Small
Slovakia EU has set the bandwagon, becoming the only country in the
eurozone, do not support the expansion of the European Financial
Stability Fund (EFFS), and endangering the economic rescue plan for
Greece. Serious consequences of the Slovak move likely will not - EU officials will find a way to push the right decision. But,
as experts believe, an unfortunate incident only proves the existence
of serious problems in the euro-zone economy, which has no solutions.Money down the drain
On the night of October 12, parliament has blocked Slovakia EFFS empowerment and increase the fund to 250 billion euros to 440 billion euros, as the leaders of the eurozone countries agreed in July this year.
Slovaks can understand their country - one of the outsiders of the EU GDP per capita (about 16 thousand euros), and they do not really want to help Greece, where the level of GDP per capita is about 22 thousand euros. "Poor countries do not want to help one that was subsidized by a much more generous, - says Managing Director of" Troika Dialog "Gavrilenkov. - Aside from the rhetoric of solidarity on the topic, the question of why the poor have to maintain the rich, remains unanswered ".
In this reality, according to many economists, is that the allocated EU financial assistance will not be able to reverse the negative trends in the economy of Greece. "The country will never be able to service its debt - 350 billion euros, the Greek economy can not afford - believes the director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research Unicon Elena Matrosov. - Slovakia, like others, sees the creation of a fund - is not the solution, but an attempt to pull time. " Points of growth of Greek economy can not be found, and to throw good money after bad hurt doubly.
Despite this, many experts are convinced that European officials will find a way to push through the necessary decision Shrew Slovaks. "There will be another vote, as long as any agreement not be reached" - believes Gavrilenkov.
Leading European politicians do not intend to depart: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that despite the failure of the vote in Slovakia, empowerment EFFS will be ratified before EU summit to be held on October 23.
Why waste time
The situation around EFFS reveals serious problems within the EU. One of them - an imperfect model of management. EU member states, as noted Gavrilenkov, have created the most democratic decision-making model that tries to take into account the interests of small states, but the system does not allow quick and effective decisions in complex non-standard situations. Because of this, the European Union, according to deputy director of the Institute of International Studies, MGIMO Victor Mizin, sometimes compared to a clumsy fat man that is poorly oriented in space, can not bend over and do not know where to go.
There is a problem and more serious - as long as no one really knows what to do with Greece and other troubled economies of the EU. RIA Novosti interviewed experts believe that financial aid to Greece may delay but does not solve the economic problems of the European Union. In addition, Greece - not the only sore point in Europe. "Some of the former Eastern Bloc countries such as Romania, are entirely dependent on EU subsidies. It is unclear what will happen to them if this help stop" - explains Victor Mizin.
A possible solution of economic problems the EU can be extremely painful. Even leaving aside the option of eurozone collapse and a return to national currencies. The output of the current impasse Elena Matrosov sees monetization of debt through a massive issue. "I'll have to print two trillion - says expert Unicon - is valueless debt, but in parallel lead to hyperinflation and the devaluation of the euro."
This solution is particularly do not like the leading economies of, say, the same in Germany. Not only does she have to drag myself to the troubled countries of the EU as a reward for all the works of the Germans will get prices and depreciation savings. By the way, dependent on imports from the EU Russia's economy, this scenario also faces big trouble.
While the pocket is empty
Hypothetical decay eurozone, which is increasingly the experts say, will also be very painful. "The world is not ready for the disappearance of the euro and the dollar's recovery monopoly - believes Gavrilenkov. - Go to the national currencies will cause the shock to financial markets."
To delay the search for radical solutions may be another reason that the resources for so-called quantitative easing - stabilizing the economy through cash injections - not yet exhausted. Even if Greece did not save money European economy will need. "No one doubts that the money will be thrown, and quite a lot - from 200 billion to 1.5 trillion euros, - says Mr. Gavrilenkov of the" Troika. "- In the event of default of Greece EU member states will have to support their banks."
Experts believe that the main argument will unfold not on quantitative easing, and as to who and how it will implement them. Does this problem lie mainly in EFFS together with national governments, or as a insisted Germany, certain obligations take over the private sector.
Russian economy, raw materials such developments at hand. Experts believe that in the event of massive bailouts, expect a noticeable reduction in price of oil is not worth it.
The maximum that can be - short-term drop in prices against the background of the general panic. Similar happened in 2008, but shortly thereafter a barrel, at the expense of cash injection will go up again.
