Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has assured that the Russian economy continues to grow even during the global economic crisis. With
optimism in the near future Russia can lower the budget deficit, a
substantial amount of reserves and high oil prices, experts say.
"Second wave" will not
Putin urged not to force a panic on the second wave of crisisEnlarge pleerDobavit video blogThe world economy is currently in the process of recovery, and the opinion of his "second wave" Russia does not share, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, speaking Thursday at an investment forum "VTB Capital", "Russia Calling."
"We urge you not whip. I agree with those experts who believe that we are in a stage of recovery. It [the way] will be a lengthy, time consuming, but it will rise" - said the prime minister.
However, if the second wave of the crisis in the global economy still occurs, then, as stated by speaking in our Economic Development Minister Elvira Elvira, Russia's economy will resume growth in 2012-2014 is in 2,5-3,7% of GDP.
Compared with other countries in Russia's position quite favorable: low level of debt, financial sector, in contrast to the crisis in 2008, is in good condition, said on Wednesday October 5 Nabiullina speaking at the "government hour" in the Duma.
"For the post-crisis period banks have significantly improved foreign exchange position and the quality of their assets," - noted the Minister. In addition, Russia still face significant foreign exchange reserves and high current-account surplus operations and not "overheating" in the stock market, unlike the situation in 2008-2009.
True, in worst-case scenarios (if oil falls to $ 60 per barrel), country's budget deficit could reach 4.5% of GDP, the minister said. The draft budget for next year, the deficit is planned at 1.6% of GDP.
Another crisis
Global economic problems are caused by poor 2011 monetary and fiscal policies of some countries, says the first deputy chairman of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev.
The crises of 2008 and 2011, according to Ulyukayev, differ significantly. Crisis of 2001 is not due to "overheating" economy, as it was in crisis in 2008, when he was a large body of risks, and incorrect assessments of the situation and poor quality management, which led to the large volume of loans, a sharp drop in global liquidity and the many upheavals in the market.
The situation in 2011, according to Alexei Ulyukayev, relies more on "cool" the economy, significant volumes of savings from households as well as in business.
Fall is not expected
Experts agree with the officials: Russia has a chance to experience a relatively painless economic problems in 2011.
"The conditions for Russia is now more favorable than they were in 2008 - RIA Novosti commentator said the chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Russia Yaroslav Lissovolik. - Overheating of the economy is not, therefore, the scale of the fall, which was in 2008, very unlikely."
State companies are much better than three years ago, said Lisovolik. Measures taken by the Government in combating the crisis of 2008, helped reduce the debt of companies and reduce currency risk.
Optimism and adds to the available savings of the state "rainy day". In 2008, the Central Bank's reserves amounted to 597 billion dollars now - 516.8 billion dollars. "The difference is not so much" - said Lisovolik.
In the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund in 2008 had $ 220 billion, now $ 100 billion less, has estimated Lisovolik. But the state companies and banks are now much better than in 2008, and in case of a new round of crisis, money for their salvation will need less than three years ago, the expert said.
The price of oil saves the ruble
During the economic challenges the EU and Russia while the U.S. can quietly watch from the sidelines. "The only thing that Russia is now connected with the rest of the world - this is the price of oil" - RIA Novosti said a senior economist IC "Troika Dialog" Anton Struchenevsky. The volume of oil demand constant, the only question is price and the price of hesitation, is the mark of $ 100 per barrel.
"With this external environment problems in Russia is not to be: the budget roughly in balance, the deficit - a small, declining inflation, economic growth continues - argues Struchenevsky. - Fundamentally high oil prices, Russia is very good."
Unless there is a collapse in commodity prices, then the exchange rate will be stable. In the forecast exchange rate for the near future, there is no conspiracy, the director of Institute of Economics Ruslan Grinberg.
"What is important is only one factor - the price of a barrel of oil. If a barrel of oil would cost about $ 100, then the exchange rate will remain roughly the same as now," - he said.
